Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released January 12, 2023, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Down 5 Percent from December Forecast The United States all orange forecast for the 2022-2023 season is 2.70 million tons, down 5 percent from the previous forecast and down 22 percent from the 2021- 2022 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 18.0 million boxes (810,000 tons), is down 10 percent from the previous forecast and down 56 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 7.00 million boxes (315,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 62 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 11.0 million boxes (495,000 tons), is down 15 percent from the previous forecast and down 52 percent from last season's final utilization. The California all orange forecast is 46.1 million boxes (1.84 million tons), is down 2 percent from previous forecast but up 14 percent from last season's final utilization. The California Navel orange forecast is 38.0 million boxes (1.52 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but up 19 percent from last season's final utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast is 8.10 million boxes (324,000 tons), down 11 percent from the previous forecast and down 6 percent from last season's final utilization. The Texas all orange forecast, at 1.15 million boxes (49,000 tons) unchanged from the previous forecast but up significantly from last season's final utilization. This report was approved on January 12, 2023. Deputy Secretary of Agriculture Jewel Bronaugh Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Joseph L. Parsons Contents Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2021-2022 and Forecasted January 1, 2023.......................................................................................... 4 Hay Stocks on Farms - States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2021 and 2022...................... 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2022 and 2023.. 6 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2022 and 2023.... 8 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024.............................. 10 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024................................ 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12 Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12 December Weather Summary................................................................................. 13 December Agricultural Summary............................................................................ 13 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 14 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15 Reliability of January 1 Crop Production Forecasts....................................................... 15 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2021-2022 and Forecasted January 1, 2023 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2021-2022 : 2022-2023 : 2021-2022 : 2022-2023 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 boxes ----- ------ 1,000 tons ----- Oranges : California, all ............: 40,400 46,100 1,616 1,844 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 31,800 38,000 1,272 1,520 Valencia ..................: 8,600 8,100 344 324 : Florida, all ...............: 41,050 18,000 1,847 810 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 18,250 7,000 821 315 Valencia ..................: 22,800 11,000 1,026 495 : Texas, all .................: 200 1,150 8 49 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 170 900 7 38 Valencia ..................: 30 250 1 11 : United States, all .........: 81,650 65,250 3,471 2,703 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 50,220 45,900 2,100 1,873 Valencia ..................: 31,430 19,350 1,371 830 : Grapefruit : California .................: 4,100 4,300 164 172 Florida ....................: 3,330 1,500 142 64 Texas ......................: 1,700 2,200 68 88 : United States ..............: 9,130 8,000 374 324 : Tangerines and mandarins 3/ : California .................: 17,400 22,000 696 880 Florida ....................: 750 500 36 24 : United States ..............: 18,150 22,500 732 904 : Lemons : Arizona ....................: 950 1,500 38 60 California .................: 24,900 22,000 996 880 : United States ..............: 25,850 23,500 1,034 940 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80. 2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. 3/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Hay Stocks on Farms - States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2021 and 2022 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : May 1 : December 1 State :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2021 : 2022 : 2021 : 2022 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 tons : Alabama .......: 300 240 1,550 1,300 Arizona .......: 20 10 180 250 Arkansas ......: 240 260 1,700 1,440 California ....: 220 280 1,200 1,125 Colorado ......: 230 580 2,000 1,350 Connecticut ...: 6 5 38 41 Delaware ......: 2 2 10 11 Florida .......: 60 75 460 450 Georgia .......: 290 190 1,260 950 Idaho .........: 410 530 2,350 2,500 : Illinois ......: 270 260 950 980 Indiana .......: 150 240 900 770 Iowa ..........: 430 720 3,120 2,480 Kansas ........: 910 670 5,000 4,100 Kentucky ......: 950 980 3,750 3,100 Louisiana .....: 160 180 640 620 Maine .........: 21 30 105 142 Maryland ......: 57 66 275 300 Massachusetts .: 9 8 34 39 Michigan ......: 190 270 1,100 980 : Minnesota .....: 400 330 1,460 2,190 Mississippi ...: 170 180 1,000 800 Missouri ......: 1,000 1,100 5,700 4,650 Montana .......: 970 450 2,900 3,250 Nebraska ......: 1,000 1,250 4,650 3,000 Nevada ........: 90 52 490 560 New Hampshire .: 5 5 42 41 New Jersey ....: 10 14 85 77 New Mexico ....: 40 30 240 190 New York ......: 290 550 1,700 1,400 : North Carolina : 190 150 950 1,000 North Dakota ..: 950 520 2,100 3,300 Ohio ..........: 210 360 1,400 1,350 Oklahoma ......: 1,150 600 4,260 3,000 Oregon ........: 290 220 920 1,410 Pennsylvania ..: 275 340 1,440 1,630 Rhode Island ..: 1 1 5 5 South Carolina : 125 80 450 380 South Dakota ..: 2,200 1,090 3,300 4,350 Tennessee .....: 570 530 3,000 2,680 : Texas .........: 1,200 1,600 8,200 5,150 Utah ..........: 170 290 1,000 1,250 Vermont .......: 35 34 157 175 Virginia ......: 480 280 1,800 1,700 Washington ....: 220 180 1,100 1,200 West Virginia .: 145 105 790 780 Wisconsin .....: 570 630 2,105 2,165 Wyoming .......: 325 200 1,150 1,300 : United States .: 18,006 16,767 79,016 71,911 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2022 and 2023 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 2,945 2,433 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 88,579 79,207 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,860 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) 49,546 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 14,913 All other ............................: (NA) 34,633 Oats ...................................: 2,581 890 Proso millet ...........................: 637 507 Rice ...................................: 2,222 2,172 Rye ....................................: 2,175 341 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 6,325 4,570 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 525 Wheat, all .............................: 45,738 35,480 Winter ...............................: 33,271 36,950 23,459 Durum ................................: 1,632 1,581 Other spring .........................: 10,835 10,440 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2,213.0 2,169.0 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 263 244 Mustard seed ...........................: 221.0 182.0 Peanuts ................................: 1,450.3 1,385.4 Rapeseed ...............................: 10.9 10.4 Safflower ..............................: 150.2 135.3 Soybeans for beans .....................: 87,450 86,336 Sunflower ..............................: 1,693.0 1,607.0 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 13,763.0 7,440.7 Upland ...............................: 13,580.0 7,262.5 American Pima ........................: 183.0 178.2 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,159.5 1,137.1 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 928.6 Tobacco ................................: (NA) 201.8 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 353.1 341.9 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,250.0 1,223.0 Dry edible peas ........................: 919.0 862.0 Lentils ................................: 660.0 602.0 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 59.8 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 34.0 Potatoes ...............................: 901.0 895.6 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 13.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2022 and 2023 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 ------ : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 71.7 174,333 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 173.3 13,729,719 Corn for silage ....................tons: 18.7 128,567 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.28 112,801 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.22 47,958 All other ........................tons: 1.87 64,843 Oats ............................bushels: 64.8 57,655 Proso millet ....................bushels: 18.5 9,403 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,383 160,368 Rye .............................bushels: 36.1 12,301 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 41.1 187,785 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 10.8 5,662 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 46.5 1,649,878 Winter ........................bushels: 47.0 1,103,707 Durum .........................bushels: 40.5 63,981 Other spring ..................bushels: 46.2 482,190 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,762 3,821,810 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 4,455.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 17.6 4,304 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 557 101,290 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 4,019 5,568,150 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 1,863 19,380 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,213 164,054 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 49.5 4,276,123 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,750 2,812,540 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 947 14,680.0 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 939 14,206.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,277 474.0 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 28.6 32,574 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 37.3 34,675 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,217 447,367 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,070 3,658 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 2,113 25,847 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 1,751 15,092 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 912 5,489 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,694 101,286.3 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 5,028 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 702,391 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 99 3,349 Potatoes ............................cwt: 438 392,243 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 120 1,648 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2022 and 2023 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,191,810 984,610 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 35,847,040 32,054,280 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,776,170 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 20,050,770 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 6,035,140 All other ....................: (NA) 14,015,630 Oats ...........................: 1,044,500 360,170 Proso millet ...................: 257,790 205,180 Rice ...........................: 899,220 878,990 Rye ............................: 880,200 138,000 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,559,660 1,849,430 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 212,460 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 18,509,710 14,358,400 Winter .......................: 13,464,440 14,953,300 9,493,620 Durum ........................: 660,450 639,810 Other spring .................: 4,384,820 4,224,960 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 895,580 877,770 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 106,430 98,740 Mustard seed ...................: 89,440 73,650 Peanuts ........................: 586,920 560,660 Rapeseed .......................: 4,410 4,210 Safflower ......................: 60,780 54,750 Soybeans for beans .............: 35,390,140 34,939,320 Sunflower ......................: 685,140 650,340 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 5,569,750 3,011,180 Upland .......................: 5,495,690 2,939,060 American Pima ................: 74,060 72,120 Sugarbeets .....................: 469,240 460,170 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 375,800 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 81,650 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ......................: 142,900 138,360 Dry edible beans ...............: 505,860 494,940 Dry edible peas ................: 371,910 348,840 Lentils ........................: 267,100 243,620 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 24,190 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 13,760 Potatoes .......................: 364,630 362,440 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 5,540 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2022 and 2023 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 3.85 3,795,650 Corn for grain .........................: 10.88 348,750,930 Corn for silage ........................: 42.01 116,634,020 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.10 102,331,350 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.21 43,506,770 All other ............................: 4.20 58,824,580 Oats ...................................: 2.32 836,860 Proso millet ...........................: 1.04 213,260 Rice ...................................: 8.28 7,274,170 Rye ....................................: 2.26 312,460 Sorghum for grain ......................: 2.58 4,769,960 Sorghum for silage .....................: 24.18 5,136,480 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.13 44,902,320 Winter ...............................: 3.16 30,037,980 Durum ................................: 2.72 1,741,280 Other spring .........................: 3.11 13,123,060 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 1.97 1,733,540 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 4,041,510 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.11 109,330 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.62 45,940 Peanuts ................................: 4.50 2,525,670 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.09 8,790 Safflower ..............................: 1.36 74,410 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.33 116,377,000 Sunflower ..............................: 1.96 1,275,750 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 1.06 3,196,190 Upland ...............................: 1.05 3,092,990 American Pima ........................: 1.43 103,200 Sugarbeets .............................: 64.22 29,550,640 Sugarcane ..............................: 83.71 31,456,630 Tobacco ................................: 2.49 202,920 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 1.20 165,920 Dry edible beans .......................: 2.37 1,172,400 Dry edible peas ........................: 1.96 684,560 Lentils ................................: 1.02 248,980 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 1.90 45,940 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 25,140 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 318,600 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.11 1,520 Potatoes ...............................: 49.09 17,791,840 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.13 750 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2023-2024 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 374 324 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 1,034 940 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 3,471 2,703 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 732 904 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 10,110.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 36,200 Avocados ..............................tons: Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 275,000 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 229.2 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: Cranberries .........................barrel: 7,440,000 : Dates .................................tons: Grapes ................................tons: 5,985,000 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: Nectarines (California) ...............tons: Olives (California) ...................tons: Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: Peaches ...............................tons: 583,500 Pears .................................tons: 690,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: Prunes (California) ...................tons: Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds: Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 2,600,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: 68,000 Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 280,000 Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 720,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2022-2023 and 2023-2024. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2023-2024 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 339,290 293,930 Lemons ....................................: 938,030 852,750 Oranges ...................................: 3,148,840 2,452,120 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 664,060 820,100 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ........................: 4,585,820 Apricots ..................................: 32,840 Avocados ..................................: Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 249,480 Cherries, Tart ............................: 103,960 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: Cranberries ...............................: 337,470 : Dates .....................................: Grapes ....................................: 5,429,500 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: Nectarines (California) ...................: Olives (California) .......................: Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: Peaches ...................................: 529,340 Pears .....................................: 625,960 Plums (California) ........................: Prunes (California) .......................: Raspberries, all ..........................: Strawberries ..............................: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,179,340 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: 61,690 Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 127,010 Pistachios (California) ...................: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 653,170 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2022-2023 and 2023-2024. December Weather Summary Significant December precipitation in the West, as well as the South, East, and lower Midwest, further chipped away at expansive drought. By January 3, 2023, just under one-half (46.3 percent) of the continental United States was experiencing drought, down 16.7 percentage points from the autumn 2022 peak of nearly 63 percent, according to the Drought Monitor. Only a few areas, including portions of the southern Atlantic States and the central Plains, failed to experience some degree of December drought relief. Some of the most impressive December storminess occurred in the Far West, including northern and central California. According to the California Department of Water Resources, the average water equivalency of the Sierra Nevada snowpack grew from about 3 to 17 inches in December, with the bulk of the precipitation falling during the first half of the month and in the year's final days. The 17-inch equivalency was about 175 percent of the early-January average and roughly two-thirds of the typical end-of-season value. In the Northwest, some winter wheat-production areas-especially in eastern Washington-retained a protective snow cover for the entire month. Snow also blanketed the northern Plains, insulating wheat from a harsh cold snap that sent temperatures into the range of -20 to -40°F, with the Arctic outbreak peaking for several days starting around December 20. The central and southern Plains were not as fortunate, with only patchy snow providing limited protection from sub-zero temperatures. Due to drought and temperature extremes, one-quarter to one-half of the winter wheat was rated in very poor to poor condition at the end of December in Oklahoma (27 percent), Nebraska (36 percent), and Kansas (49 percent). The Arctic outbreak, which lasted through the holiday weekend (December 24-26), also potentially harmed a variety of crops in the Deep South. In the wake of multiple freezes, Southern producers monitored cover crops and winter grains and forages, some of which were burned back by low temperatures. Southern Florida escaped the freeze, but crops such as citrus, sugarcane, and strawberries in winter agricultural regions from Deep South Texas to Louisiana and central Florida were subjected to temperatures below 32°F. Another cold-related impact was an epic Great Lake-effect snow and wind event, especially in parts of western New York. On the strength of the cold wave, monthly temperatures averaged 5 to 15°F below normal in numerous locations from the interior Northwest to the northern Plains. Elsewhere, temperatures were closer to normal due to the offsetting effects of early-month warmth and the subsequent Arctic outbreak, although monthly readings averaged more than 5°F above normal in parts of northern New England. With wetter December weather in parts of the South, muddy field conditions developed. By the end of December, topsoil moisture was rated 60 percent surplus in Arkansas and Louisiana. At the same time, topsoil moisture was at least one-half very short to short in a variety of states across the Plains and Rockies, including New Mexico (76 percent), Nebraska (73 percent), Kansas (69 percent), Oklahoma (58 percent), and Wyoming (56 percent). The combination of long-term drought in the central United States and the late-December cold wave led to ongoing lower-than-normal river levels in much of the Mississippi River drainage basin. Due to the late-month formation of ice (and ice jams) in the middle Missouri River, record-low water levels developed in the lower Missouri River. On December 30-31 in Missouri, river stages along the Missouri River dipped to -0.98 and -2.88 feet, respectively, in Hermann and Jefferson City. Previous records had been -0.90 foot in Hermann (on December 21, 1878) and -1.10 feet in Jefferson City (on February 3, 1908). December Agricultural Summary Much of the Nation was cooler than normal during the month of December. Most of the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Pacific Northwest, Central and Northern Plains, and Rockies recorded cooler than normal temperatures for the month of December. Parts of Montana and North Dakota recorded temperatures 12°F or more below normal for the month. In contrast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, Northeast, and Southern Plains, as well as parts of the Southeast and Southwest, recorded moderately warmer than normal temperatures. Areas in northern Maine recorded temperatures 6°F or more above normal for the month. December was drier than normal for much of Southern California-Nevada, the Southern High Plains, Ohio Valley, and Southeast. In contrast, much of the Northern Plains, as well as parts of Arizona, the Great Basin, Nebraska, Pacific Northwest, and Rockies received at least twice the normal amount of precipitation for the month. Nationwide, 91 percent of the 2023 winter wheat acreage had emerged by November 27, equal to last year but 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average. As of November 27, thirty-four percent of the 2023 winter wheat acreage was reported in good to excellent condition, 10 percentage points below the same time last year. By November 27, eighty-four percent of the Nation's cotton acreage had been harvested, equal to last year but 5 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Ninety-seven percent of the Nation's peanut acreage had been harvested as of November 27, two percentage points ahead of last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average. Crop Comments Grapefruit: The United States 2022-2023 grapefruit crop is forecast at 324,000 tons, up 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 13 percent from last season's final utilization. California's grapefruit forecast at 4.30 million boxes (172,000 tons), is up 5 percent from the previous forecast and up 5 percent from last season. The Texas grapefruit forecast at 2.20 million boxes is up 10 percent from the previous forecast and up 29 percent from the 2021- 2022 season. The Florida forecast, at 1.50 million boxes (64,000 tons), is down 17 percent from previous forecast and down 55 percent from the last season. Lemons: The 2022-2023 United States lemon crop is forecast at 940,000 tons, down 3 percent from previous forecast and down 9 percent from last season's final utilization. The California forecast, at 22.0 million boxes (880,000 tons), is down 4 percent from the 2021-2022 season and down 12 percent from the 2021-2022 season. The Arizona forecast, at 1.50 million boxes (60,000 tons), is up 30 percent from the previous forecast and up 58 percent from last year. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 904,000 tons, up 9 percent from the previous forecast and up 23 percent from the last season's final utilization. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 22.0 million boxes (880,000 tons) is up 10 percent from last forecast and up 26 percent from last year. Hay stocks on farms: All hay stored on United States farms as of December 1, 2022 totaled 71.9 million tons, down 9 percent from December 1, 2021, which is the lowest December 1 stocks since 1954. Disappearance from May 1, 2022 - December 1, 2022, totaled 57.7 million tons, down 3 percent from the same period in 2021. Record low December 1 hay stock levels were estimated in California, Colorado, and Nebraska. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree is determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published January 1 forecast. Revision policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of- season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 5.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 5.9 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 10.2 percent. Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 297,000 tons, ranging from 2,000 tons to 843,000 tons. The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times. The difference does not imply that the January 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of January 1 Crop Production Forecasts [Based on data for the past twenty years] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : : Difference between forecast : : : and final estimate : : :---------------------------------------- : :90 percent : Production : Years Crop : Root mean :confidence :---------------------------------------- :square error: interval : : : : Below : Above : : :Average:Smallest:Largest: final : final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ---- percent --- ----- millions ----- number : Oranges 1/ ...............tons: 5.9 10.2 297 2 843 6 14 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Quantity is in thousands of units. USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch.................................................. (202) 720-2127 Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section......................................... (202) 720-2127 Irwin Anolik - Crop Weather.................................................. (202) 720-7621 Joshua Bates - Hemp, Oats, Soybeans.......................................... (202) 690-3234 David Colwell - Current Agricultural Industrial Reports...................... (202) 720-8800 Michelle Harder - Barley, County Estimates, Hay.............................. (202) 690-8533 James Johanson - Rye, Wheat.................................................. (202) 720-8068 Greg Lemmons - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet.................................. (202) 720-9526 Becky Sommer - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum.............................. (202) 720-5944 Travis Thorson - Sunflower, Other Oilseeds................................... (202) 720-7369 Lihan Wei - Peanuts, Rice.................................................... (202) 720-7688 Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section................ (202) 720-2127 Deonne Holiday - Almonds, Asparagus, Carrots, Coffee, Cranberries, Onions, Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn, Tobacco................................................ (202) 720-4288 Robert Little - Apricots, Dry Beans, Lettuce, Macadamia, Maple Syrup, Nectarines, Pears, Snap Beans, Spinach, Tomatoes.................................. (202) 720-3250 Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Cauliflower, Celery, Garlic, Grapefruit, Kiwifruit, Lemons, Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges, Pistachios............................................................... (202) 720-5412 Chris Singh - Apples, Blueberries, Cucumbers, Hazelnuts, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Raspberries, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes.......... (202) 720-4285 Antonio Torres - Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Papayas, Peaches, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Walnuts, Watermelons............. (202) 720-2157 Chris Wallace - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chickpeas, Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Pecans.......................... (202) 720-4215 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov. 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